NOTE: This post is being updated from 4-7 AM US-EDT by TNC. Please refresh your page every 3 minutes for the latest.
SYDNEY (TNC Newswire) | Early results collected from Sky News Australia and ABC News 24 shows the Center-right Coalition gaining 3-4 votes from incumbent Labor MPs. The seats of Leichardt (confirmed) ,Dawson,Forde (confirmed) , Bonner (confirmed), Solomon, Flynn (confirmed), Macquarie (update) , Longman (confirmed with a 20 yr old candidate) , Bonner, and Brisbane (confirmed) may be gains for the Coalition. According to Sky News, the Coalition has ~47% of the vote so far in Queensland (capital, Brisbane) and it is also ahead in New South Wales (seat-Sydney) so far with 50.5% of the vote. However, the state of Victoria (capital, Melbourne) is expected to be safe for hometown PM Julian Gillard’s Labor Party.
UPDATE: According to Sky News Australia, the Coalition has gained four seats from Labor. They need to gain at least 17 seats to take back power and form the new government.
The Coalition needs a 2.4% national swing to win power and a 1.8% swing to create a hung parliament.
Also, according to Sky News Australia – the Coalition candidate in former Coalition PM John Howard’s seat is ahead of incumbent Labor MP Maxine Mckew. PM Howard most notably lost this seat in his re-election bid in 2007 to Ms. McKew.
UPDATE: ABC News 24 and Sky News Australia has called Bennelong for the Liberal/Coalition candidate John Alexander over incumbent MP McKew (Lab) [+1 Coalition].
UPDATE: Sky News Australia says the Division of Lindsay – which has predicted the party of the new government since its creation in 1984 – shows the Coalition candidate ahead so far with 50.8% on the two party preference. However, it has since become closer and is now a tossup once more.
UPDATE: Sky News Australia says with 8.53% of the vote in Brisbane, the Coalition candidate is ahead. This is the home district of many Titulian Australians, so we are keeping a close eye on this District as well.
Suggestion: Keep a close eye on seats in the states of Queensland and New South Wales.
UPDATE: ABC News 24 says at around 7:22 PM AEDT, Labor has lost 5 seats and has a – 5.8 swing.
UPDATE: TNC is awaiting a possible projection from ABC News 24. With 71 seats for Labor, 66 for Coalition, 5 for Others, and 8 In Doubt.
National Mood:
Possible Outlook of Parliament: 71 ALP/68 COA/1 GRN/4 OTH
>>> BREAKING: ABC News 24 shows tie at the moment: 68 ALP / 68 Coalition / 5 Other / 9 In Doubt
>>> BREAKING UPDATE: ABC News 24 has put the Coalition slightly ahead at 9:30 PM AEDT. However, election analyst Antony Green predicts Labor ahead with only 1 seat and 4 independents and 1 Green.
>>> BREAKING UPDATE: Green changes his prediction, with the Coalition at 73 seats to Labor’s 72 and the 1 Green + 4 Independents. We have to point out that the most of the independents are former Coalition members (mostly National Party) and are likely to rejoin the party.
>>BREAKING: ABC News 24’s latest projection may make Tony Abbot (Coalition) the new Prime Minister:
72 COALITION / 70 LABOR / 1 GRN / 4 OTHER
>> BREAKING: ABC News 24’s prediction shows the Coalition 2 seats short of a majority government:
UPDATE: Sky News Australia says Coalition Leader/Opposition Ldr Tony Abbott may still become PM, but not with a Coalition majority.
Stay tuned to Sky News Australia and ABC News 24.
TNC will update and provide Australian Election coverage until 8 PM AEDT / 6 AM US-EDT.
Bellwether seats: (since year)
| Seat | Incumbent | Current Projection |
| Eden-Monaro (1972) | Labor | ALP Retain |
| Leichardt (1972) | Labor | Coalition Win (see below) |
| Makin (1984) | Labor | ALP Retain |
| Lindsay (1984) | Labor | Lean ALP |
Leichardt projection by ABC News 24:
Coalition gains so far:
>>> BREAKING: ABC News 24 only has 2 in doubt seats left. The Coalition leads with 73 seats to Labor’s 70 and Others 5.
TNC Projection: HUNG PARLIAMENT
TNC predicts that there will be a hung parliament. With sources from ABC News 24 and Sky News Australia, we are unsure of the largest party or the next Prime Minister. Sky News Australia Analyst and Former PM Bob Hawke (Lab) says its all up to the Division of Macquarie on who gets the negotiating lead (+1 seat). ABC News 24 and Sky News Australia have already called this seat for the Coalition.
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